* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 09/21/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 41 47 50 51 52 48 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 37 41 47 50 51 52 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 7 3 3 2 2 6 6 10 19 26 SHEAR DIR 73 89 100 122 183 194 288 277 291 263 294 260 265 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 151 152 151 150 148 146 142 140 133 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 71 69 68 65 61 61 62 56 58 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 19 10 9 25 22 33 43 59 51 59 36 200 MB DIV 45 54 45 21 23 29 33 24 14 30 28 33 26 LAND (KM) 1095 1155 1172 1190 1215 1258 1298 1306 1339 1382 1434 1427 1343 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.7 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.9 119.1 120.1 121.2 122.3 123.4 124.4 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 45 51 54 20 18 16 10 10 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 27. 30. 31. 32. 28. 25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 09/21/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 09/21/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY