* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 09/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 46 48 41 35 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 42 46 48 41 35 29 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 31 28 24 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 13 12 8 8 12 15 24 38 46 51 53 62 SHEAR DIR 104 181 191 207 218 237 247 248 261 251 267 275 277 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.2 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 151 146 139 133 126 116 105 96 89 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 62 64 63 65 58 65 58 54 58 61 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 25 31 21 29 47 48 39 42 12 -3 -12 200 MB DIV 46 54 74 58 37 35 36 28 17 19 0 10 10 LAND (KM) 1071 1079 1094 1101 1113 1104 1113 1158 1213 1246 1283 1351 1279 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.7 21.0 22.6 24.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.5 117.1 117.7 118.9 120.1 121.4 123.0 124.8 126.4 128.0 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 10 11 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 21 22 29 13 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 26. 26. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. -1. -7. -14. -20. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 16. 10. 4. -5. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED