* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992009 09/22/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 34 33 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 34 33 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 8 10 17 23 36 50 61 51 43 36 SHEAR DIR 185 198 202 222 223 248 258 260 253 256 260 258 265 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.1 26.3 25.3 24.1 23.3 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 151 144 134 126 116 104 96 88 82 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 64 65 64 61 59 60 56 52 57 58 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 19 11 12 35 32 41 24 13 -5 -12 -14 200 MB DIV 58 66 57 32 23 23 23 17 2 22 27 12 27 LAND (KM) 1042 1042 1051 1055 1066 1057 1092 1143 1160 1197 1265 1205 1103 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.8 21.1 22.7 24.4 26.3 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.5 117.2 117.8 119.1 120.6 122.1 123.8 125.5 127.1 128.4 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 32 41 39 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 22. 24. 24. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -7. -17. -24. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 8. 2. -8. -15. -23. -29. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992009 INVEST 09/22/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY