* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172009 09/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 44 44 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 44 44 42 33 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 36 36 34 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 12 14 18 30 40 49 61 52 48 37 SHEAR DIR 168 174 212 215 239 260 250 266 254 257 252 267 256 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.0 26.2 25.2 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 151 149 142 133 125 115 106 97 90 83 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 67 63 58 60 61 59 56 51 55 57 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 11 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 6 8 17 15 30 31 30 2 -9 -23 9 200 MB DIV 61 59 43 34 46 9 15 14 25 28 27 8 44 LAND (KM) 1004 1005 1013 1020 1015 1017 1039 1092 1091 1124 1197 1199 1101 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.0 21.3 22.6 24.2 25.9 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.2 116.8 117.4 117.9 119.0 120.3 121.6 123.1 124.6 126.3 127.7 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 46 43 36 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -20. -28. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 4. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 3. -7. -17. -26. -30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 SEVENTEEN 09/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 SEVENTEEN 09/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY