* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 46 48 49 45 42 38 33 27 23 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 46 48 49 45 42 38 33 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 46 45 42 38 35 31 28 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 13 17 15 19 18 26 15 20 26 28 SHEAR DIR 156 208 208 227 249 250 246 249 253 273 270 292 281 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 146 143 140 137 137 135 133 131 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 56 57 57 56 58 58 66 70 69 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 11 12 17 17 29 21 49 28 21 -16 -15 200 MB DIV 53 42 26 25 18 18 12 37 47 30 26 -4 3 LAND (KM) 1020 1013 1013 1016 1015 1045 1099 1151 1205 1254 1301 1354 1367 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.3 116.8 117.3 117.8 118.2 118.8 119.8 120.5 121.1 121.9 122.7 123.7 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 43 38 26 12 10 9 5 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 10. 7. 3. -2. -8. -12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY