* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 48 49 51 51 47 41 35 30 26 22 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 48 49 51 51 47 41 35 30 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 49 48 45 41 37 33 29 26 23 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 20 17 12 17 22 24 27 26 29 34 SHEAR DIR 214 221 229 258 268 242 269 250 277 277 286 289 286 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 146 145 141 139 137 136 134 131 129 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 57 60 56 55 58 55 55 63 60 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 13 19 13 24 29 26 48 27 27 13 13 200 MB DIV 35 22 17 10 8 -5 6 20 15 12 -7 -12 5 LAND (KM) 1051 1070 1079 1090 1102 1168 1243 1333 1428 1502 1588 1658 1744 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.7 118.2 118.6 119.0 120.2 121.4 122.6 123.8 125.0 126.4 127.6 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 29 15 13 10 8 7 7 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 7. 1. -5. -10. -14. -18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED