* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 52 53 51 50 45 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 52 53 51 50 45 41 37 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 51 52 51 49 46 44 42 40 37 35 33 SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 14 11 14 13 15 18 13 14 18 28 SHEAR DIR 230 240 249 264 260 240 247 271 290 294 295 264 256 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 143 142 140 139 138 136 133 130 128 125 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 55 58 50 56 59 58 61 55 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 20 15 23 30 22 41 27 23 -5 0 -12 200 MB DIV 27 16 3 14 4 1 3 16 7 0 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1094 1111 1131 1160 1192 1251 1330 1414 1494 1568 1633 1708 1783 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.8 119.3 119.8 120.3 121.3 122.3 123.4 124.5 125.8 127.1 128.4 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 15 12 11 10 8 9 7 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 0. -4. -8. -11. -15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY