* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 55 55 54 52 49 45 39 33 28 22 V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 55 55 54 52 49 45 39 33 28 22 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 54 55 54 50 47 44 42 40 37 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 16 21 18 10 13 14 13 14 13 21 22 30 42 SHEAR DIR 252 258 276 262 251 253 263 282 280 287 276 256 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 141 140 139 140 139 134 129 123 119 114 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 55 52 53 58 55 52 51 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 15 18 24 23 33 37 27 0 -9 -4 -36 200 MB DIV 14 0 -5 0 1 0 -1 6 -10 -5 -5 0 -11 LAND (KM) 1104 1125 1148 1184 1220 1290 1378 1506 1605 1642 1621 1661 1748 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.4 19.5 20.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.4 119.8 120.3 120.8 121.8 122.8 124.4 126.2 127.4 128.1 129.1 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -28. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY