* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 38 33 29 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 38 33 29 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 38 34 30 27 24 22 20 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 19 14 16 16 15 20 15 14 17 22 30 34 SHEAR DIR 252 275 278 260 255 269 265 272 276 281 257 251 255 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 140 140 140 140 138 133 129 124 120 117 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 59 58 55 56 53 54 47 50 45 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 3 12 18 23 20 53 32 26 -17 -10 -18 12 200 MB DIV 6 -5 -8 -1 4 -17 12 17 4 -13 4 15 10 LAND (KM) 1102 1130 1161 1198 1235 1329 1443 1555 1605 1642 1670 1750 1860 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.4 19.9 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.6 120.1 120.6 121.1 122.2 123.5 124.9 126.2 127.4 128.6 129.9 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 8 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -16. -22. -24. -27. -31. -35. -38. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY