* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 34 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 34 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 40 38 35 31 28 25 23 21 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 18 16 17 19 15 24 20 24 32 37 SHEAR DIR 274 267 254 261 273 260 276 264 270 256 245 252 265 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 139 140 140 138 134 130 128 123 120 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 57 57 55 58 55 51 48 48 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 15 16 14 27 36 17 7 -3 -15 -24 -16 200 MB DIV 3 -5 -11 0 -15 -9 2 2 13 -1 12 12 10 LAND (KM) 1141 1172 1205 1255 1306 1434 1553 1627 1696 1766 1820 1895 1964 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.4 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.3 120.8 121.4 122.0 123.4 125.0 126.5 127.9 129.1 130.2 131.2 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 9 8 8 9 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -32. -36. -39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED