* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 39 37 34 30 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 39 37 34 30 26 22 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 35 32 29 26 24 21 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 17 21 16 19 18 16 18 24 27 30 33 SHEAR DIR 260 263 265 269 271 261 278 263 274 235 238 242 249 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 139 139 135 131 129 127 127 124 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 55 52 52 54 51 48 48 48 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 23 23 22 40 21 17 -8 -14 -21 -25 -37 200 MB DIV -3 -18 2 -3 -14 9 6 2 2 -2 -11 5 2 LAND (KM) 1174 1235 1298 1358 1419 1521 1636 1710 1770 1850 1977 2038 2071 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.6 18.5 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.3 122.0 122.7 123.3 124.5 126.3 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.5 132.4 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 9 9 8 1 6 2 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -33. -36. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY