* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NORA EP172009 09/25/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 13 14 19 21 21 12 19 28 32 37 SHEAR DIR 275 277 276 262 243 265 255 272 254 233 227 255 247 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 137 133 131 131 129 126 125 127 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 53 49 51 47 46 47 46 44 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 23 21 23 19 3 5 -7 -3 -14 -11 -21 200 MB DIV -10 3 -2 -19 -12 -5 0 11 14 13 10 9 -19 LAND (KM) 1235 1290 1346 1407 1470 1581 1680 1774 1857 1944 2041 2130 2201 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.6 18.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.9 122.5 123.2 123.9 125.4 127.2 128.6 129.7 130.9 132.3 133.3 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 9 9 0 5 2 0 5 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -18. -24. -26. -27. -29. -33. -34. -33. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172009 NORA 09/25/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172009 NORA 09/25/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY