* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 09/25/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 22 26 25 27 27 28 30 34 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 22 26 25 27 27 28 30 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 19 20 20 21 21 23 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 18 19 17 14 22 22 27 24 19 SHEAR DIR 229 243 239 231 244 256 265 252 262 267 297 304 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 128 121 117 114 117 119 121 123 125 128 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 124 116 111 106 107 108 109 112 113 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -55.1 -55.8 -56.2 -56.6 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 58 60 60 57 48 54 50 53 53 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 3 5 2 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -27 -41 -48 -56 -76 -66 -75 -21 -29 -29 -48 -43 200 MB DIV 22 -2 7 9 -21 -25 0 -7 1 1 -14 3 0 LAND (KM) 1238 1380 1525 1645 1766 2003 2139 2231 2184 2122 2070 2056 2064 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.0 19.1 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.4 31.7 32.8 33.9 36.0 37.4 38.6 39.8 41.4 42.9 44.5 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 12 12 10 8 6 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 6 3 1 0 5 8 10 14 19 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 14. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 09/25/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)