* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992009 09/25/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 29 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 29 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 28 27 25 25 26 27 30 34 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 21 25 26 22 20 21 19 7 7 10 SHEAR DIR 243 239 237 241 245 249 263 228 251 268 288 226 273 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 119 113 112 113 112 111 112 112 112 114 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 125 114 107 104 102 99 97 97 96 97 99 100 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 -55.3 -56.4 -57.0 -57.2 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 59 60 62 57 53 59 58 59 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -43 -47 -57 -72 -78 -59 -60 -47 -87 -109 -111 -100 200 MB DIV -2 6 12 -9 -17 -15 -5 -9 -5 -7 -15 0 -14 LAND (KM) 1342 1469 1601 1704 1792 1871 1895 1903 1952 1995 2036 2076 2136 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.8 20.5 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.2 32.3 33.2 34.0 35.0 35.3 35.4 35.9 36.3 36.7 37.1 37.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 8 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 7. 9. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992009 INVEST 09/25/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)