* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082009 09/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 40 40 41 40 42 42 43 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 40 40 41 40 42 42 43 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 36 38 38 37 36 36 38 42 47 52 55 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 19 24 25 21 14 13 6 5 4 13 29 SHEAR DIR 226 238 246 253 258 263 271 288 297 275 222 248 256 SST (C) 27.2 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 119 114 113 114 115 115 115 117 116 117 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 115 109 106 106 104 102 101 101 99 101 103 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 61 58 63 56 62 60 56 52 53 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -51 -63 -74 -83 -68 -87 -58 -74 -82 -79 -87 -101 200 MB DIV 21 7 -16 -23 -18 -9 -3 -11 5 -40 10 -32 1 LAND (KM) 1463 1593 1726 1834 1916 2002 2070 2135 2189 2220 2240 2248 2256 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.4 20.9 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.0 23.8 23.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.1 32.3 33.4 34.4 35.3 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.7 38.8 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 1 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 2 3 5 7 8 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082009 EIGHT 09/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)