* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082009 09/26/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 35 37 38 40 41 44 46 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 35 37 38 40 41 44 46 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 33 32 32 34 37 41 47 54 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 19 18 16 21 18 14 15 8 8 2 2 SHEAR DIR 231 244 250 259 246 277 286 290 306 316 284 52 271 SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 112 112 114 117 118 119 121 125 127 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 108 105 105 106 107 106 105 106 109 110 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -55.2 -55.7 -55.9 -56.4 -56.8 -57.1 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 59 58 62 53 56 58 58 52 49 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -53 -58 -54 -32 -61 -44 -48 -66 -91 -71 -89 -80 200 MB DIV 19 11 -8 11 9 -9 -22 -17 -13 -13 -6 -28 -18 LAND (KM) 1547 1650 1754 1852 1939 2086 2191 2250 2315 2376 2435 2296 2150 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.8 22.4 23.7 24.8 26.0 27.3 28.6 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.7 33.6 34.6 35.5 37.1 38.2 38.8 39.4 39.9 40.3 40.5 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 4 6 8 12 15 15 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 16. 21. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082009 EIGHT 09/26/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)