* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 09/26/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 37 47 58 65 66 67 65 62 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 37 47 58 65 66 67 65 62 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 33 39 45 47 47 46 45 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 6 5 4 3 1 4 6 9 8 8 SHEAR DIR 29 56 64 81 96 77 84 155 226 220 229 260 247 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 149 149 150 151 150 150 147 143 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 78 74 76 75 71 70 70 69 64 65 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 38 26 16 -3 -7 -15 -5 -4 11 12 30 200 MB DIV 63 70 80 88 72 42 34 31 35 6 -9 -15 -9 LAND (KM) 1330 1362 1397 1416 1417 1439 1495 1546 1566 1608 1691 1806 1927 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.0 114.6 115.3 116.0 117.5 119.1 120.5 121.9 123.1 124.5 126.1 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 43 42 41 46 39 41 37 38 22 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 38. 45. 46. 47. 45. 42. 39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY