* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082009 09/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 35 39 42 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 43 49 SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 20 19 16 20 22 13 3 11 11 16 SHEAR DIR 241 244 239 250 258 268 286 275 297 225 341 352 354 SST (C) 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 115 116 117 120 122 121 121 123 126 129 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 107 107 107 109 107 103 103 105 108 111 113 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.8 -57.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 57 53 58 57 51 50 47 39 37 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 6 6 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -48 -36 -39 -47 -35 -23 -18 -32 -44 -57 -59 -40 200 MB DIV 0 21 24 5 -10 -24 26 -24 -18 -25 -17 -41 -38 LAND (KM) 1831 1935 2013 2070 2129 2246 2362 2424 2434 2476 2520 2509 2369 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.6 22.0 23.5 24.1 24.2 24.7 25.3 26.0 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.3 36.2 36.9 37.5 38.7 39.9 40.5 40.6 41.0 41.4 41.9 42.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 6 3 2 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 4 5 7 11 14 14 16 18 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 17. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082009 EIGHT 09/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)