* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 09/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 54 59 58 56 56 52 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 46 54 59 58 56 56 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 45 51 55 55 51 47 42 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 4 7 12 16 20 20 SHEAR DIR 45 58 74 78 85 93 114 190 225 243 243 250 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 151 151 151 150 145 140 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 78 75 77 75 72 68 71 69 65 62 62 58 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 41 30 17 0 -7 4 9 18 21 42 32 33 200 MB DIV 54 53 61 51 42 34 15 19 -3 -2 -11 7 33 LAND (KM) 1293 1308 1331 1365 1404 1507 1603 1683 1749 1806 1847 1888 1943 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.5 118.4 120.3 122.2 124.0 125.4 126.5 127.4 128.4 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 52 49 22 30 38 40 14 11 9 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 34. 33. 31. 31. 27. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED