* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902009 09/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 59 61 61 64 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 55 59 61 61 64 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 46 52 57 58 58 57 59 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 8 6 3 4 5 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 55 72 75 84 79 98 115 147 246 222 291 23 32 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 150 151 152 151 149 146 148 149 152 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 74 69 69 68 69 65 65 61 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 26 16 0 -5 -2 3 5 9 25 34 35 31 200 MB DIV 54 61 49 41 38 26 11 -15 -22 -9 -10 9 5 LAND (KM) 1363 1395 1432 1480 1531 1655 1755 1819 1885 1956 2076 2222 2353 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.8 117.7 118.6 119.5 121.2 122.9 124.3 125.5 126.5 127.7 129.2 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 47 44 43 36 39 37 37 37 36 42 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 34. 36. 36. 39. 39. 41. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902009 INVEST 09/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY