* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/29/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 35 39 41 38 32 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 35 39 41 38 32 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 2 1 9 11 19 25 33 36 46 51 SHEAR DIR 45 31 52 54 201 219 223 203 234 224 235 227 248 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 26.7 25.0 24.1 23.0 22.3 21.9 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 156 152 147 131 113 103 91 84 82 76 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 78 77 77 76 68 66 63 59 59 56 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 29 37 46 43 33 20 32 27 56 35 39 42 200 MB DIV 34 28 55 40 18 24 0 13 45 51 40 38 45 LAND (KM) 429 492 559 530 514 576 625 727 759 772 718 523 125 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.1 21.2 22.4 23.5 24.8 26.1 27.5 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.1 110.2 111.4 112.5 114.7 117.0 119.2 120.9 122.0 122.0 120.4 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 40 34 33 36 32 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 13. 20. 24. 25. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 4. -1. -6. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 21. 18. 12. 4. -3. -11. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED