* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/29/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 44 44 40 32 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 41 44 44 40 32 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 37 34 29 24 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 2 5 6 13 24 31 42 50 55 60 SHEAR DIR 23 54 79 199 213 200 211 213 221 221 215 215 223 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 26.2 25.3 24.6 23.9 23.2 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 155 152 146 126 117 109 100 93 87 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 78 73 71 65 61 62 63 62 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 34 43 47 40 33 55 82 87 103 91 84 101 200 MB DIV 36 47 26 12 17 25 19 54 69 63 31 50 48 LAND (KM) 523 590 585 570 587 673 798 932 1035 1090 1067 913 636 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.4 25.7 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.3 111.4 112.6 113.7 116.0 118.7 121.1 123.3 124.6 125.0 123.9 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 6 7 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 39 37 32 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. -4. -11. -18. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 19. 15. 7. -1. -11. -21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/29/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY