* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/30/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 10 13 14 13 20 15 26 28 35 44 45 57 SHEAR DIR 220 205 202 202 208 176 191 193 204 212 231 235 247 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.2 23.2 22.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 142 137 131 122 119 114 110 105 98 95 165 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 65 65 63 61 61 58 58 56 49 48 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 12 10 9 7 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 64 65 74 80 73 100 89 92 99 81 60 45 59 200 MB DIV 38 25 23 22 24 58 43 41 34 -6 3 15 24 LAND (KM) 576 632 651 709 778 949 1096 1198 1212 1063 721 132 -303 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.9 21.5 22.9 24.6 27.0 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.1 116.1 117.2 118.2 120.3 122.4 124.1 124.8 124.1 121.3 116.0 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 6 5 12 21 32 36 HEAT CONTENT 35 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 6. 0. -10. -20. -28. -30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED