* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 09/30/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 9 6 19 24 36 33 46 46 52 64 SHEAR DIR 228 201 224 209 200 200 216 210 222 219 240 244 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 22.9 28.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 141 136 131 123 119 114 109 106 97 153 133 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 65 64 60 61 57 56 49 45 41 47 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 68 68 66 71 95 74 89 74 59 65 34 32 200 MB DIV 35 15 17 21 29 58 47 33 14 0 10 23 29 LAND (KM) 669 708 744 807 877 1020 1118 1183 1189 1055 632 -12 -691 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.9 25.1 28.3 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.0 119.0 120.9 122.6 123.9 124.6 124.0 120.6 113.1 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 5 13 28 38 39 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -13. -19. -26. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -19. -23. -27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 09/30/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY