* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 10/01/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 32 29 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 4 17 15 18 27 27 40 44 55 60 SHEAR DIR 212 203 174 168 167 200 181 199 217 225 237 250 250 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.7 24.0 23.5 30.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 137 132 128 124 119 115 110 105 103 172 140 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 7 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 63 63 61 56 50 45 43 46 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 78 90 101 88 78 79 65 47 38 37 16 200 MB DIV 32 27 43 55 64 18 8 7 9 -5 18 16 15 LAND (KM) 740 789 846 903 965 1105 1164 1167 1041 760 278 -66 -735 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.2 20.8 22.1 23.6 25.8 28.6 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.2 118.1 119.0 119.9 121.6 122.9 123.6 123.2 121.0 116.7 110.6 104.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 9 17 27 31 31 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -8. -15. -21. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 4. 1. -6. -16. -26. -28. -30. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 10/01/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 10/01/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY