* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 10/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 56 60 64 69 72 72 70 71 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 56 60 64 69 72 72 70 71 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 47 49 54 56 59 63 68 70 68 63 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 6 7 8 10 17 19 17 20 24 28 SHEAR DIR 251 239 260 253 267 290 281 267 259 258 258 250 257 SST (C) 23.3 22.7 22.2 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.5 22.3 23.4 23.4 22.6 21.1 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 93 89 86 85 83 82 82 86 94 96 93 87 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 76 75 74 73 71 71 74 82 85 84 79 74 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -56.2 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 61 60 57 57 53 51 53 54 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 15 13 12 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 271 256 240 224 197 157 143 143 157 158 166 122 63 200 MB DIV 7 36 25 16 0 -12 -11 6 20 25 24 32 25 LAND (KM) 1731 1714 1701 1732 1752 1838 1778 1792 1962 1686 1257 828 430 LAT (DEG N) 37.7 38.4 39.1 39.7 40.3 41.0 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.4 38.0 40.3 43.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.4 29.9 31.2 32.5 33.0 31.8 28.4 23.6 18.7 14.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 6 11 16 20 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 21. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 24. 29. 32. 32. 30. 31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 10/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)