* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912009 10/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 32 31 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 2 9 16 15 17 26 30 34 39 66 77 78 SHEAR DIR 189 153 165 179 187 183 213 216 233 227 243 245 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.0 23.1 22.3 28.8 22.5 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 131 128 124 118 110 103 96 90 160 93 84 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 7 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 64 65 60 58 53 50 47 54 59 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 94 99 102 83 76 65 43 29 31 56 40 20 200 MB DIV 41 43 32 31 5 -3 6 21 9 25 44 52 54 LAND (KM) 873 921 976 1025 1079 1103 1069 911 626 130 -252 -935 -891 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.6 21.7 23.3 24.9 27.3 30.5 34.2 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.8 119.7 120.5 121.3 122.5 123.2 122.6 120.4 116.2 110.1 103.7 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 10 18 27 32 31 28 HEAT CONTENT 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 14. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -6. -13. -23. -36. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -10. -19. -27. -33. -43. -55. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912009 INVEST 10/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912009 INVEST 10/01/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED