* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902009 10/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 59 61 65 69 68 69 63 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 54 57 59 61 65 69 68 69 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 53 55 56 56 58 62 66 66 62 58 SHEAR (KT) 14 5 3 1 4 11 20 19 17 22 23 28 57 SHEAR DIR 250 244 275 154 310 309 289 280 263 232 199 238 250 SST (C) 22.0 21.6 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.8 21.3 22.4 22.2 21.7 19.2 17.3 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 86 84 82 81 80 79 82 89 90 89 81 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 72 71 70 68 71 78 81 81 75 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.9 -57.7 -59.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 6 6 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 56 56 53 54 53 53 57 60 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 13 12 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 241 214 189 169 154 134 131 156 166 180 140 51 -2 200 MB DIV 6 4 -4 10 -14 -5 4 23 10 59 51 23 26 LAND (KM) 1690 1699 1702 1734 1768 1785 1783 1850 1549 1104 641 482 127 LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.0 40.6 41.1 41.5 41.7 41.0 39.6 38.8 39.9 43.1 46.5 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 29.1 29.4 30.0 30.5 31.8 32.3 30.8 27.1 22.0 17.0 12.8 6.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 6 11 17 22 24 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 10. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 20. 24. 23. 24. 19. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902009 INVEST 10/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)