* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/02/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 41 38 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 41 38 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 41 39 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 9 18 18 33 34 40 51 57 58 67 SHEAR DIR 187 217 240 230 232 232 223 215 219 237 232 234 240 SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.3 24.4 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 113 110 107 103 98 95 95 93 103 110 107 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -54.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 71 68 66 58 50 41 37 38 42 39 36 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 37 42 51 55 38 26 20 7 11 8 12 20 200 MB DIV 34 32 24 10 -5 -4 21 15 0 32 15 41 56 LAND (KM) 630 629 633 627 614 573 392 282 178 83 19 -6 -37 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.7 25.0 25.7 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.7 118.0 118.2 118.4 118.5 117.4 116.6 115.5 114.8 114.0 113.7 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 4 3 5 7 5 4 4 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -11. -20. -29. -37. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -12. -20. -32. -41. -51. -60. -69. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/02/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY