* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/02/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 36 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 40 39 36 30 24 22 24 22 25 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 18 26 27 36 41 44 51 58 68 78 84 SHEAR DIR 202 234 228 229 249 238 231 226 243 241 235 225 231 SST (C) 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.2 22.9 25.5 29.6 30.0 29.7 29.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 109 103 100 98 93 90 117 159 164 159 157 144 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 1 4 2 3 2 2 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 69 65 60 59 54 46 39 39 35 44 43 38 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 49 54 41 30 33 22 31 35 53 58 62 200 MB DIV 39 41 16 0 0 32 18 14 34 6 27 47 44 LAND (KM) 578 536 484 423 362 202 53 -51 48 -80 -183 -255 -400 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.2 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.1 28.9 29.4 30.0 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.6 117.7 117.5 117.2 116.0 114.8 113.6 112.2 110.9 109.6 109.3 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 19 9 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -1. 4. 7. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -24. -36. -48. -60. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -8. -17. -28. -37. -42. -48. -56. -65. -74. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/02/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/02/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED