* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP182009 10/03/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 31 33 32 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 31 32 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 28 26 25 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 27 32 29 37 37 48 46 51 65 56 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 225 217 213 225 231 238 243 248 242 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.5 25.9 30.3 30.1 29.3 28.8 27.3 27.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 108 123 169 167 158 152 137 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 48 41 38 40 36 42 40 53 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 49 45 27 16 5 23 17 22 -18 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 21 31 27 27 6 13 16 2 39 43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 462 354 250 147 55 17 -210 -478 -631 -687 -429 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.2 27.2 28.4 29.4 30.2 31.4 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 116.5 115.5 114.5 113.5 110.6 108.5 105.7 104.4 103.0 99.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 10 12 12 12 10 8 10 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 36 2 7 8 0 6 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 844 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -18. -30. -46. -57. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -3. -6. -13. -26. -37. -43. -46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182009 OLAF 10/03/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY