* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL092009 10/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 63 63 66 66 64 62 58 52 48 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 63 63 66 66 51 33 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 59 57 53 51 50 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 16 20 21 22 23 45 41 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 261 240 220 208 220 245 243 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.4 20.3 19.2 18.2 17.2 16.2 15.6 15.1 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 83 80 77 74 71 70 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 76 73 71 68 66 65 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -56.6 -58.1 -58.8 -58.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 67 70 71 65 50 50 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 10 9 12 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 145 134 151 146 57 -3 -5 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 44 49 62 47 23 14 37 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1046 869 706 652 662 423 165 42 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.2 41.8 43.3 45.0 46.6 48.8 50.3 51.5 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 21.3 19.6 17.8 16.8 15.8 13.8 11.0 7.7 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 19 18 15 12 12 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 22 CX,CY: 21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 23. 29. 33. 35. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 3. -3. -7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092009 GRACE 10/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)