* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 10/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 55 56 57 60 63 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 55 56 57 60 63 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 44 45 46 47 48 52 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 0 7 12 11 18 26 18 18 11 9 SHEAR DIR 17 151 267 82 204 269 246 249 222 212 191 190 168 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 154 151 144 143 146 149 153 154 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 162 159 154 144 139 139 143 148 148 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 77 73 70 69 68 61 63 57 55 49 44 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 -18 -29 -35 -46 -24 -30 -15 5 6 0 19 200 MB DIV 82 72 37 19 22 29 18 7 -4 -26 -14 -5 9 LAND (KM) 1213 1144 1093 1066 1066 1095 991 927 770 474 211 11 133 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 15.3 16.8 17.8 18.3 18.4 18.4 17.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 44.5 46.0 47.4 48.8 51.7 54.2 56.3 58.4 61.2 63.7 66.3 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 11 11 13 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 41 45 45 46 55 60 59 64 74 73 70 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 25. 30. 31. 32. 35. 38. 43. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY