* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL092009 10/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 58 60 64 60 58 56 53 46 40 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 58 60 51 40 38 36 33 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 54 53 50 41 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 20 26 27 36 52 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 230 211 211 215 247 247 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.6 17.7 16.8 16.1 15.3 14.0 13.8 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 76 74 73 71 68 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 70 69 68 67 64 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 -56.1 -56.6 -57.1 -58.4 -58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 62 49 39 42 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 116 106 65 10 -4 9 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 62 54 46 5 17 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 667 648 587 418 272 116 -16 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.3 46.0 47.6 49.4 51.1 53.6 54.5 54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.2 16.2 15.1 14.5 13.9 11.7 8.6 5.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 18 18 18 16 12 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 27 CX,CY: 15/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 37. 38. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 5. 3. 1. -2. -9. -15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092009 GRACE 10/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)