* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 10/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 35 41 47 48 50 56 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 35 41 47 48 50 56 64 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 38 41 45 52 63 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 9 12 7 10 21 15 15 4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 202 139 218 242 242 254 218 199 202 183 131 160 349 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 153 152 149 150 152 153 156 159 158 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 160 157 154 148 146 145 147 149 155 158 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 61 63 65 61 60 56 51 45 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -15 -19 -26 -23 4 -3 13 33 27 20 32 34 200 MB DIV 46 23 8 11 24 40 32 18 0 -8 24 -5 -17 LAND (KM) 1058 1011 977 965 961 899 767 706 619 425 276 259 309 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.4 13.9 15.0 15.8 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.3 15.6 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 47.0 48.4 49.8 51.2 53.9 56.1 58.1 60.1 62.0 64.0 66.4 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 12 11 10 10 9 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 55 50 54 55 52 62 65 76 75 75 75 82 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. 0. 4. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 16. 22. 23. 25. 31. 39. 44. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY