* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 10/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 47 46 46 47 52 56 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 47 46 46 47 52 49 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 37 38 38 38 38 40 44 45 57 SHEAR (KT) 5 14 15 18 18 20 20 24 11 12 7 10 8 SHEAR DIR 252 247 258 260 271 252 246 255 275 326 319 21 65 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 146 144 144 148 150 149 152 156 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 147 146 141 138 139 139 138 141 150 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 67 64 58 60 62 59 59 54 49 44 40 38 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -41 -51 -51 -51 -30 -42 -27 -25 -22 4 24 28 200 MB DIV 42 28 5 0 30 24 20 8 7 -11 9 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 1172 1152 1149 1177 1156 1077 1014 842 660 488 252 -11 69 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 18.0 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.2 19.4 18.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.5 48.0 49.4 50.8 52.1 54.3 56.1 57.8 59.7 61.5 63.6 66.6 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 12 9 9 9 10 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 47 54 56 57 60 66 63 55 73 20 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 16. 16. 17. 22. 26. 32. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 10/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY