* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 10/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 26 27 29 32 39 47 52 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 29 26 27 29 32 39 46 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 24 26 30 36 44 SHEAR (KT) 27 23 26 27 26 25 22 13 11 11 6 7 8 SHEAR DIR 257 254 253 259 261 251 283 316 352 305 355 242 323 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 146 148 149 149 151 154 158 160 159 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 139 138 138 137 136 138 145 153 159 157 159 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 56 58 52 49 43 40 33 40 33 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -47 -39 -36 -41 -52 -56 -43 -20 10 30 23 36 200 MB DIV 6 1 6 14 20 -27 -25 -39 -37 -20 -25 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1201 1145 1110 1097 998 870 706 576 368 109 7 1 115 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.0 20.3 19.3 18.3 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.1 54.3 55.3 56.3 57.7 59.5 61.0 62.9 65.4 68.4 71.5 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 11 9 8 8 8 11 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 55 55 58 60 46 36 60 60 64 84 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -1. 2. 9. 17. 22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 10/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 10/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY