* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912009 10/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 36 37 38 41 48 53 58 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 36 37 38 41 48 34 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 35 34 34 35 38 44 33 40 SHEAR (KT) 22 26 27 24 16 25 18 23 12 12 8 4 1 SHEAR DIR 252 248 255 261 252 247 278 344 343 340 65 251 356 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 148 150 149 149 151 154 158 160 162 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 140 139 139 137 134 136 144 153 157 160 164 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 60 61 57 59 59 52 46 43 42 37 39 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -36 -32 -34 -41 -46 -59 -34 -16 -5 6 19 15 200 MB DIV 17 7 19 24 15 -17 -14 -54 -27 -15 -4 16 3 LAND (KM) 1121 1087 1065 981 903 750 643 526 337 133 10 -8 95 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.4 21.3 20.6 19.7 19.1 18.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.5 55.6 56.5 57.3 59.0 60.5 61.8 63.6 66.2 69.2 72.3 75.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 11 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 63 61 63 64 69 67 34 46 66 66 8 19 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 18. 23. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912009 INVEST 10/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912009 INVEST 10/06/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY