* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 49 50 53 56 58 59 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 49 50 53 56 58 59 58 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 51 51 51 53 57 63 66 67 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 24 17 21 22 6 11 6 10 2 20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 256 249 236 247 278 6 30 37 234 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 151 153 152 150 148 144 141 136 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 145 144 144 141 137 131 126 122 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 55 51 48 37 32 27 26 26 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -30 -29 -25 -32 -53 -46 -45 -79 -126 -132 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 17 -6 -23 -12 -24 -65 -33 -13 -8 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 988 933 804 696 602 504 530 645 737 863 999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.7 23.0 24.3 25.6 27.0 28.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.6 56.9 58.1 59.3 60.4 62.5 64.3 65.6 66.6 67.0 67.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 67 73 74 58 46 57 40 37 26 19 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY