* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 46 47 49 51 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 46 47 49 51 52 53 55 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 47 47 47 49 53 56 58 60 62 DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 22 21 20 15 7 19 19 23 14 14 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 259 258 247 254 277 320 22 9 50 64 20 66 N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 152 149 150 150 149 149 150 148 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 146 143 131 131 132 131 132 132 130 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 54 49 45 42 34 36 33 31 27 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -32 -23 -29 -45 -58 -50 -54 -71 -79 -95 -107 N/A 200 MB DIV 21 8 -20 -9 -17 -44 -33 -31 -24 -28 -29 -23 N/A LAND (KM) 959 855 755 637 541 465 419 383 377 410 489 596 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.4 21.0 21.2 21.5 22.1 22.9 24.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.6 58.6 59.9 61.2 62.7 62.9 63.7 64.3 65.1 65.8 66.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 11 4 2 4 4 5 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 69 74 74 48 48 53 60 60 59 52 48 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY