* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/07/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 35 34 38 43 46 50 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 35 34 38 43 46 50 56 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 34 36 40 45 50 56 62 DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 25 23 17 11 12 7 14 11 4 3 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 245 247 263 262 348 357 52 88 161 43 280 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 151 151 150 152 152 152 152 152 150 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 141 139 137 136 138 137 137 136 134 132 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 50 47 43 41 38 37 36 33 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -18 -23 -34 -39 -44 -36 -47 -60 -77 -102 -112 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -27 -13 -17 -22 -58 -18 -8 6 -6 -6 -29 N/A LAND (KM) 836 718 610 552 506 408 314 311 309 289 362 466 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.2 23.0 24.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.0 60.2 61.0 61.8 63.3 64.8 66.3 67.7 69.1 70.2 71.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 77 71 50 48 55 62 62 66 70 67 51 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 21. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/07/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY