* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 30 29 32 38 44 49 54 61 67 71 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 30 29 32 38 44 49 54 61 67 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 48 54 63 DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 20 17 8 6 15 6 16 10 2 2 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 257 281 304 48 54 86 153 294 335 355 N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 152 153 154 156 157 158 160 159 161 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 140 139 140 144 147 147 147 148 144 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 48 45 39 36 38 36 39 39 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -31 -31 -35 -48 -36 -49 -64 -58 -76 -88 N/A 200 MB DIV -32 -16 -27 -25 -55 -28 -32 6 -8 -11 -22 -18 N/A LAND (KM) 692 594 507 458 419 284 223 91 113 108 86 117 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 20.8 20.5 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.8 22.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 60.3 61.3 62.0 62.7 64.8 67.4 69.7 71.9 73.9 75.6 76.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 9 11 12 10 10 9 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 80 61 57 56 65 66 64 77 70 75 55 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -6. -3. 3. 9. 14. 19. 26. 32. 36. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY