* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/08/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 25 24 29 36 44 49 55 61 67 71 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 25 24 29 36 44 49 55 61 67 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 24 25 28 32 38 44 50 55 DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 19 11 10 13 9 8 6 10 13 10 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 240 257 281 292 345 46 19 61 332 7 2 56 N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 153 153 153 155 155 157 160 161 161 163 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 140 141 142 144 144 145 148 149 146 146 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 46 44 41 39 36 38 37 38 39 38 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -45 -47 -40 -53 -52 -51 -55 -72 -85 -87 -97 N/A 200 MB DIV -32 -24 -7 -56 -64 2 -14 -15 1 -4 -20 -19 N/A LAND (KM) 557 486 426 365 323 244 145 61 62 63 51 78 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.8 20.7 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.8 21.5 22.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.5 62.3 63.2 64.1 66.3 68.3 70.4 72.3 74.2 75.7 77.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 65 61 63 67 66 68 48 62 61 79 70 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -1. 6. 14. 19. 25. 31. 37. 41. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY