* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 33 40 45 50 56 61 67 72 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 33 40 45 50 39 33 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 28 30 34 40 46 38 32 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 11 11 10 7 6 11 7 8 6 13 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 252 271 277 327 15 3 86 159 337 344 20 27 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 155 155 157 157 160 164 165 166 168 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 142 144 144 148 147 151 153 152 151 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 11 12 11 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 40 38 36 38 37 39 39 41 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -41 -38 -54 -60 -45 -54 -58 -62 -80 -85 -97 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 -58 -57 -25 -25 -14 -27 5 -5 -14 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 467 387 320 255 209 182 22 17 7 -43 -39 -9 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.4 22.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.5 63.4 64.4 65.4 67.6 69.9 72.1 74.2 76.1 77.6 78.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 8 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 70 73 74 64 65 59 1 67 97 70 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 3. 10. 15. 20. 26. 31. 37. 42. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY