* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 10/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 28 31 40 49 60 69 78 87 96 102 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 30 39 43 51 60 69 50 60 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 41 47 56 70 54 67 85 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 1 3 5 16 5 8 6 7 9 3 SHEAR DIR 123 85 117 350 323 286 354 20 11 58 86 72 71 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.8 28.5 28.1 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 155 144 137 147 141 151 151 156 155 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 175 170 154 144 155 148 159 160 166 164 163 168 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 11 9 9 12 10 13 10 11 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 60 56 58 61 56 60 61 67 66 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 22 25 20 24 47 37 21 38 51 61 50 46 200 MB DIV 15 7 -11 -17 2 4 0 0 -4 11 6 19 28 LAND (KM) 298 207 54 10 37 55 17 67 206 158 -60 252 487 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.0 9.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 58.5 60.5 62.4 64.3 67.9 71.5 75.0 78.6 82.0 85.3 88.2 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 20 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 86 63 17 3 15 31 0 61 26 50 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -1. 4. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 3. 6. 15. 24. 35. 44. 53. 62. 71. 77. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 10/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 10/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY