* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL102009 10/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 28 36 44 48 54 59 65 70 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 28 36 44 48 45 45 51 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 27 31 35 40 41 40 47 DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 5 8 11 12 0 9 6 7 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 283 270 327 1 20 31 85 277 30 27 46 346 N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 155 155 156 159 160 162 165 169 166 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 144 145 146 150 149 150 152 152 147 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 42 39 38 35 41 39 38 41 42 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -30 -40 -44 -47 -51 -44 -57 -75 -90 -91 -97 N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -47 -32 -19 0 -12 5 -3 -5 -34 -25 0 N/A LAND (KM) 423 339 275 223 211 132 66 80 20 -4 12 51 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.3 64.3 65.3 66.3 68.7 71.1 73.4 75.4 77.3 78.8 79.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 69 72 69 67 67 62 76 14 6 0 61 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 3. 11. 19. 23. 29. 34. 40. 45. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102009 HENRI 10/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY