* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 10/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 48 58 71 81 87 93 97 99 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 38 47 42 43 53 59 52 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 44 46 45 57 74 65 76 81 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 5 2 10 11 2 8 12 8 11 15 SHEAR DIR 82 103 63 22 69 319 38 36 104 129 125 136 121 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.9 28.5 28.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 156 147 138 138 146 142 156 154 155 150 146 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 170 156 144 143 153 147 164 164 166 159 153 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 13 10 14 12 12 10 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 60 56 55 58 57 62 61 63 64 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 24 20 21 38 51 35 29 25 45 59 52 38 200 MB DIV -3 -1 4 18 28 -10 5 12 37 19 12 18 24 LAND (KM) 224 92 24 16 93 9 -9 15 89 49 76 305 515 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 10.9 10.2 9.4 8.5 7.7 7.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 60.2 62.0 63.7 65.4 68.7 72.0 75.3 78.5 81.6 84.5 87.1 89.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 65 27 5 4 23 0 0 34 50 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 4. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 14. 23. 33. 46. 56. 62. 68. 72. 74. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 10/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 10/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY