* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 10/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 50 58 65 73 81 87 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 40 49 56 50 44 52 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 42 38 49 61 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 10 13 15 5 15 8 6 5 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 300 218 230 289 338 268 309 341 320 288 81 126 103 SST (C) 28.2 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.8 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 138 143 147 140 144 151 154 158 169 172 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 139 142 146 150 143 148 157 161 166 174 174 173 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 9 9 13 11 12 9 12 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 59 61 58 58 58 57 55 58 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 21 36 45 44 39 37 20 60 57 49 49 28 200 MB DIV 10 24 11 -5 -1 -4 31 25 43 32 32 52 56 LAND (KM) 11 39 101 114 52 3 122 303 285 -71 71 217 409 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 64.1 65.5 67.0 68.4 71.2 74.3 77.5 80.9 84.3 87.9 91.5 94.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 4 13 26 36 31 2 50 26 43 21 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 25. 33. 40. 48. 56. 62. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 10/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 10/09/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY