* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 33 37 40 40 36 34 27 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 29 33 37 40 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 4 5 4 4 8 16 35 48 50 57 SHEAR DIR 26 355 42 25 57 170 250 215 226 208 232 250 272 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.2 30.7 30.8 29.6 27.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 151 149 157 172 173 163 145 112 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 9 5 7 0 700-500 MB RH 67 62 60 59 58 54 50 48 46 47 50 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 43 63 44 33 7 20 2 15 3 18 9 200 MB DIV 11 -5 -9 4 -6 24 16 2 23 34 31 25 16 LAND (KM) 275 283 294 321 349 399 345 142 104 -151 -418 -684 -544 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.6 19.8 21.7 23.8 26.0 28.4 30.8 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.6 108.0 109.0 109.7 109.5 108.4 107.0 105.6 103.4 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 13 14 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 37 38 35 31 26 35 50 10 7 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 39. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 5. -3. -10. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 16. 14. 7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/09/09 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING