* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 10/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 27 32 36 38 37 36 37 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 27 32 36 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 3 1 3 8 13 19 39 35 30 19 SHEAR DIR 344 324 17 71 152 192 226 233 221 223 242 283 277 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 29.3 30.7 31.0 29.7 29.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 153 150 149 158 172 172 162 154 142 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 7 6 7 7 6 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 57 55 53 50 50 46 45 47 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 63 45 30 32 9 18 -11 -2 -17 -17 -22 200 MB DIV 3 -17 -7 -3 -5 29 31 12 22 16 -16 -20 -6 LAND (KM) 259 280 301 328 354 402 290 127 89 -107 -365 -574 -662 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.9 26.1 28.2 29.6 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.8 108.2 109.2 109.7 109.4 108.8 107.7 106.1 104.6 103.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 5 6 8 9 11 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 37 37 35 27 29 39 54 14 9 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 4. -2. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 17. 16. 17. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 10/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 10/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY